One WASH—Consolidated Water Supply, Sanitation, and Hygiene Account Project (One WASH—CWA)

REQUEST FOR EXPRESSIONS OF INTEREST

(CONSULTING SERVICES – FIRMS SELECTION)

COUNTRY: Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia

NAME OF PROJECT: CR-WaSH

Credit No.: IDA-64450

Assignment Title: Selection and Employment of a consulting firm to provide Training and Support to Operationalization of existing Ethiopia Meteorological Institute (EMI) Numerical Weather Prediction System with European Centre for Mid-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Data Stream.

Reference No.: ET-MoWE-343032-CS-QCBS Re-bid                                           

The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE) has received financing from the World Bank toward the cost of implementation of CR-WaSH (Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene Project) and intends to apply part of the proceeds for this consulting service.

1. Objectives of the Consultancy Services

The objective of the consultancy services is to provide technical assistance for EMI to develop and improve their capacity on operational weather forecasting and the provision of weather services through training and operationalization. The specific objectives are:

• To assess capabilities for the existing NWP activities and identify knowledge gaps
• To propose activities to reduce identified knowledge gaps with and improving the weather and climate prediction capabilities / processes.
• To implement and operationalize the revised WRF modeling schemes
• To develop, demonstrate and help operationalize a forecast verification system and a verification procedure.
• To conduct training on NWP/using WRF package, and also on the use of GCM for generating seasonal forecast products.
• To develop WRF and GCM training material and operational manual.
• To identify the data which is essential for operation, research and training from ECMWF data stream
• To support EMI forecasters to provide accurate and reliable weather and climate forecasts in Ethiopia

1. Scope of the consultancy

Ethiopia had been struck by different weather and climate-related extremes at different times in its history. Most of the hazards are mainly drought and flood. As mentioned above, the purpose of this assignment is to improve the quality and timeliness of weather and climate forecast at different time scales in Ethiopia. This encompasses the assessment of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and climate modelling. The spatial and temporal extent of NWP and climate modeling need to be analyzed and should be ultimately presented in an easily understandable way appealing to EMI users. The consultancy work should give great emphasis on on-the-job training and operationalizing weather and climate forecasting.

More specifically, the consultancy work should include the following but not limited to:

1. Review available forecasting and climate modeling

• Consult all available works on weather and climate prediction modelling in Ethiopia including the current system at EMI, other technical agencies/ministries and research institutions/universities. Identify opportunities to consolidate national capacity and gaps
• Conduct a literature review ofgood practice in worldwide with comparative analyses on the advantages and disadvantages of the available forecast systems, data needs, reliability, etc… Reach out relevant contacts, as appropriate, to have their view and advice on the potential future system for Ethiopia.

1. Capacity and gap assessment

• Identify knowledge and capacity gaps in coping with NWP, climate modeling as well as weather and seasonal to sub-seasonal forecasting.
• Develop a training program to improve he EMI capacity on NWP and GCM as well as weather and seasonal to sub-seasonal forecasts
• Prepare a detailed module for the training activities on weather and seasonal to sub-seasonal forecasts.

Develop recommendations with prioritization of actions based on the review and assessment above, and translate them into a work plan to be implemented under this consultancy to provide technical support for EMI to improve their capacity on NWP and seasonal climate modeling as well as forecasting, noting there might be recommendations and actions beyond the scope of this consultancy. The work plan needs to be discussed and agreed with the client.

1. Improvement of NWP, seasonal climate modeling and forecasting based on the work plan agreed with the client

• Integrate and use all available and usable data i.e. automatic weather station data, upper air data, ICPAC products…

EMI has several types of data recording stations both digital and manual. Among 250 Automatic weather stations, currently data from only 50 stations are used for model verification and bias correction and for dynamical forecasting model (WRF) that has short term and seasonal forecasts. The consultant is expected to assess the feasibility to integrate the rest of data from other stations, preferably data from more AWS, aiming for 100% of AWS stations, should be usable for i) data assimilation, 2) model bias correction, and 3) verification to have a better representation of Ethiopian complicated topography in the model. The use of data for the model requires the understanding of the format of each data set and customize it by developing and applying specific script to fit for purpose.

• Modeling and Downscaling dynamical forecast for sub seasonal to seasonal scale (S2S) climate prediction. Customize and operationalize the WRF model with better initial and boundary conditions and help create sustainable modeling environment. The scale of model configuration will be consulted with the client to ensure an appropriate resolutions achieved
  • Integrating a data assimilation module using 3Dvar and 4Dvar
  • Use ECMWF initial condition data for WRF model initialization
  • Test and verify the WRF model outputs for daily, sub seasonal to seasonal scale and recommend the verification methods. Apply the results of verification to re-calibrate WRF for better performance
  • Configure the model on High Performance Computerin such a way that ensures sustainable operational work
• Downscaling of different regional and dynamical forecasting models for National consumption (regional organization like ICPAC have seasonal forecast for the region that can be downscaled for national consumption.
  • Select a regional product that is suitable for Ethiopia
  • Consult with a client to select the recommended forecast product, downscaling and bias correction techniques for S2S forecasting
  • Recommend and set out ensemble of the multiple model products
  • Develop operational schemes for the revised NWP and GCM modeling and forecasting that implement in national, zonal and district level.
  • Operationalize the ensemble forecasting techniques of the WRF and GCMs both for short term (1day-9day), sub-seasonal to seasonal scale. This task should include documenting approaches, methods, and a training plan. The documentation of approaches and methods should follow standard scientific reporting techniques.
  • Configuration should include automated system that enables the WRF model to start by itself and produce output with agreed format
  • The consultative work should have documentation that comprises all approach and methods on model development, training and implementation parts. It should follow standard scientific reporting techniques
  • Develop a user guide for model user and developer that can be used for any update needs and future uses. The user guide should include all model input data, configurations, calibration and verification assumptions, etc…
  • WRF output with different options i.e EMI dissemination; MoWE that can be used for purpose of hydrological forecast WRF Hydro, etc,,,

1. Providing training

Provide training for all the activities that is conducted under this consultancy. Implement training according to the above mentioned and the greater emphasis should be put on operational on-the-job training, at least for three rainy seasons.       

1. The contract is Lump sum contract. The required professional staff-months are 21. The implementation period is also 7 months. The detailed Terms of Reference (ToR) & evaluation criteria for the assignment can be obtained from the Ministry Web site,  https://www.mowe.gov.et/en/resource_types/tor
2. The Ministry of Water and Energy (MoWE) now invites eligible consulting firms to indicate their interest in providing the services. Interested Consultants should provide information demonstrating that they have the required qualifications and relevant experiences to perform the Services.
3. The short listing criteria are: - core business and years in business, relevant experience, technical and managerial capability of the firm.
4. The attention of interested Consultants is drawn to Section III, paragraphs, 3.14, 3.16, and 3.17 of the World Bank’s “Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers” July 2016 (“Procurement Regulations”), setting forth the World Bank’s policy on conflict of interest. 
5. Consultants may associate with other firms to enhance their qualifications, but should indicate clearly whether the association is in the form of a joint venture and/or a sub-consultancy. In the case of a joint venture, all the partners in the joint venture shall be jointly and severally liable for the entire contract, if selected.
6. A Consultant will be selected in accordance with the Quality and Cost Based Selection (QCBS) method set out in the Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers of the World Bank.
7. For any clarification, you can use the address stated below during office hours from 8:30 a.m. to 12:00 a.m. in the morning and from 1:30 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. in the afternoon.
8. Expressions of interest must be delivered in a written form to the address below in person, or by mail, or by e-mail (PDF Format) by October 20, 2023 on or before 4:00PM.

Ministry of Water and Energy

Attn: Mr. Wagari Madera, Procurement Executive officer, Postal address: 5744

Street address: Haile Gebresilasie Street

Ministry of Water & Energy, First Floor, and Room number 112, Telephone: +251116898006

Email: procurement@mowe.gov.et

Country: Ethiopia, Addis Ababa.